CRYPTO MINING BLOG

The popular crypto analyst shared his vision of the development of the situation in the Bitcoin market ahead of the expected halving in April 2024. According to his analysis, the movement of the first cryptocurrency after the reduction of miners’ remuneration traditionally falls into four characteristic phases. In his opinion, if we focus on updated highs, the top of the current Bitcoin bull cycle will occur in December 2024 – February 2025. Historically, when BTC broke the old ATH, there were 266-315 days left until the market peak.

4 phases of Bitcoin halving: what awaits BTC after the reward reduction

✅ Rally and pullback before halving. Approximately 60 days before the halving, a powerful Bitcoin rally unfolds (blue segment on the chart). In this cycle, BTC has already entered the middle of a pre-halving rally and even managed to update its all-time high for the first time in its history before the miner reward was reduced. This behavior indicates the unprecedented strength of the current bullish movement.

This will be followed by an inevitable rollback (dark blue circles) as speculators who bought the hype take profits. Two modest pullbacks in January (-18%) and March (-14%) could serve as harbingers of another, but less deep, correction before the halving.

✅ Re-accumulation. Immediately after a pullback, there is usually a period of Bitcoin re-accumulation (the red segment), during which investors often become impatient. This phase can last up to 150 days or about 5 months. However, this time the upper limit of the accumulation range has moved significantly higher due to renewed highs, so the accumulation phase may be shorter.

✅ Parabolic uptrend. As soon as Bitcoin manages to break out of the accumulation zone, a new parabolic growth begins (green zone). In previous cycles, this phase lasted approximately 385 days, that is, a little more than a year. However, thanks to the current acceleration in BTC price, the duration of the upcoming parabola could be halved.

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