A bit more than a week remains before the main event of 2020 in the crypto world, a bitcoin halving. Over the past month and a half since the collapse of the markets, the main cryptocurrency, and with it the entire digital asset market, has fully recovered and are gaining strength for a new rise. A study by Currency.com cryptocurrency analysts shows that Bitcoin behaves quite predictably, repeating the scenario of the previous two halving, showing approximately the same dynamics, but adjusted for the global crisis and pandemic, which have collapsed BTC for a short period of time.
The dynamics of bitcoin before and after halving is the same. First, bitcoin grows, reaching a historic maximum, then drops by more than 80%, gradually recovers to average values from the previous peak and halving occurs, after which a new peak submits within 13-17 months. It turns out the scheme “Peak – Bottom – Recovery (Halving) – New peak.” By the way, this model is fully consistent with the standard business cycle.
Peak – $ 32
Bottom – $ 2
Hawling Recovery – $ 12.5
New peak in 13 months – $ 1177
Peak – $ 1177
Bottom – $ 163
Hawling Recovery – $ 665
New peak in 17 months – $ 19,800
Peak – $ 19,800
Bottom – $ 3148
Hawling Recovery – $ 9400-10400
New peak in ?? months – ???
As you can see, the scenarios are almost identical, and the current rate is very close to the expected values. Given the growing open interest in CME bitcoin futures and the increased activity of large investors, the price is likely to reach $ 9400- $ 10400 for the remaining days.